In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
RBI has printed 16,957 million pieces of Rs 500 notes and 3,654 million pieces of Rs 2,000 notes as on December 8.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan is expected to express that cautiousness as he looks to manage expectations.
A day after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee hiked the policy repo rate by 50 basis points (bps), several commercial banks, including ICICI Bank and Bank of Baroda, raised their external benchmark-linked loan rates by an equal amount on Thursday. HDFC, the country's largest mortgage lender, too, increased its interest rates on housing loans by another 50 bps. In total, it has raised rates by 85 bps since May 4, when the RBI had increased the repo rate by 40 bps in an off-cycle meeting.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
Dealers attribute the sluggishness in sales to distress in rural India as well as tepid sentiment in urban markets.
Inflation targeting framework is now enshrined as a formal agreement by the government and the RBI; thus, it may seem that we are flogging a dead horse, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh.
Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.
According to highly placed sources, the finance ministry is likely to extend ECLGS and other loan guarantee schemes for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), hospitality and tourism sector, and the health infrastructure beyond March 31, Business Standard has learnt. This is likely to be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as part of her Budget speech on February 1.
Going by the strict criteria set, only Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Haryana qualify for such extra borrowing, as of now.
The US Fed's rate cycle is set to turn later this year, but India is in a much better position than it was in 2013.
7 million jobs will be created in formal sector in FY18
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
The government could carry out the demonetisation exercise over periodic intervals along with its surprise element, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh.
'It has been an ongoing process, talking to the relevant ministries about eliminating leakages and curbing non-core expenditure in various schemes.'
For first time in 8 yrs, stake sale proceeds could exceed Budget Estimates. ONGC's acquisition of HPCL alone could get the exchequer more than Rs 30,000 crore.
Companies are still struggling to recover from years of exuberance.
The highest number of jobs were created in the age group of 18-21 at 1.29 million, followed by 22-25 years of age at 1.12 million during these seven months.
The hoarding of cash accentuated from the very start of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic started taking hold the world over, and fear of the pandemic prodded people to remain liquid for emergency use.
RBI will cut rates in its next policy announcement on June 2.
Even if RBI partially replaces the stock of the high value notes, RBI will have to incur thousands of crores of rupees in cost, say economists.
India's economy is unlikely to see double-digit growth and may grow between 8 per cent and 9 per cent this fiscal year (2021-22, or FY22), against the estimated 11.5 per cent, according to leading economists and rating agencies. The downward revision of growth projections to as low as 10 per cent is mostly on account of stringency in restrictions by states, relatively slow vaccination pace, and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. However, they say the impact will not be as severe as the first wave, and expect the first quarter to see positive growth.
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan may have found the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s inflation projections on the higher side, but independent experts agree with the central bank and expect both wholesale and retail prices to remain high.
A key trigger for the increased retail participation in equities has been the lockdown triggered by Covid-19 that saw investors channelising their savings to capital markets in search of better return on their investments and the need to increase their disposable income.
The central government is likely to exceed the budgeted tax collection target of Rs 22.2 trillion for the current fiscal year, led by better indirect tax mop-up, compliance measures, and recovery in most sectors following the second wave of the Covid pandemic. Personal income and corporate tax collections (net of refunds) grew 74 per cent to Rs 5.70 trillion in the first half of the current financial year, driven mainly by advance tax and TDS payments. The target for the current fiscal year is Rs 11.08 trillion; higher taxes are paid usually towards the end of a fiscal year.
Post office savings deposit, recurring deposit accounts and the senior citizen savings scheme account have shown the highest growth in the current financial year.
'The government and the RBI have been playing a very good part in terms of inflation management.'
The rates of price rise in many services used by the common man, including hospital and nursing, cook, domestic help and bus (fare), among others, have also touched double digits during the last four years, putting a burden on disposable income.
Given the relevance of bank deposits for Indian savers, whether the regulator would permit linking savings interest rate to a repo-like structure needs to be seen, as a move of this nature could increase volatility in savings also.
Economists caution that the underlying cause could be an alarming drop in demand -- something that's not good for economic growth.
According to the final recommendations of an expert committee, the weight of primary (unprocessed) food items will go down by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in the new series compared to the current one
Among the states due for election next year are AP, Haryana and Odisha, which have a fair share of agri credit. If these states individually announced debt relief, the combined waiver would be at least around Rs 600 bn to Rs 700 bn. Clearly, this will be a frightening challenge for Indian banks.
After the April-July fiscal deficit data was released on August 31, several analysts hinted that the government may need to go for cuts in capital expenditure to meet the fiscal deficit target.
Analysis of the 7th Pay Commission's recommendations.
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
Patra, as executive director of the central bank, was the principal advisor to the Monetary Policy Department since July 2012.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes this would ease pressures on CAD as $10 a bbl fall in oil price reduces CAD by $8 billion or 0.4 per cent of GDP.
Income velocity based on currency with the public went down from 0.93 in October to 0.84 in March says a report from SBI's economic research department
Telangana govt currently provides the state's 5.83 million farmers an income support of Rs 4,000 per acre per season, irrespective of the size of their land holding
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